Storm Chances Ahead For Green Country

Storm Chances Ahead For Green Country

Highs will reach the upper 70s and a few lower 80s Tuesday before a weak front brings a few spotty showers Tuesday night and even more showers and storms Wednesday across the area.

Strong south winds Thursday through the weekend also signal the development of two strong upper-level systems. Both will offer increasing thunderstorm threats, including severe weather potential for the region.  

What are the chances for severe weather this week in Oklahoma?

A weak front arrives Tuesday afternoon and evening across northern OK and may trigger a few isolated showers as the boundary moves into southern OK overnight before stalling along the Red River Valley overnight.

Tues Highs

Severe storms are not expected along the front later Tuesday evening, and most locations will remain dry. But the front will begin moving northward early Wednesday morning as a warm front due to the advancement of our next strong upper-level trough positioned off the west coast.

As the warm front lifts northward, scattered storms are likely to develop along the northward side of the lifting warm front. A few of these storms may become strong to near severe capable of producing quarter sized hail.

Weds Highs

There's an outside chance that one or two of the storms may become rooted directly on the boundary and become severe, producing large hail early Wednesday afternoon.

Storms will tend to become less numerous during the late morning hours but may flare-up with additional storms late Wednesday evening as the boundary begins lifting even more northward into southern Kansas.

Rain Zone Weds

By late Wednesday and early Thursday, most of the state (and eastern OK) will be located in the developing warm sector of the main storm system with significant low-level moisture streaming from the south to north from Texas into Oklahoma.

A dry line feature is likely to develop across far western OK Thursday. As forcing from the main upper-level trough arrives by afternoon, scattered storms will develop along and ahead of the dry line and will be capable of producing severe storms.

Storm Chance Timeline

Most of the severe weather threats should be near or west of the Tulsa metro Thursday evening with storms moving into our area late Thursday into early Friday morning.

Despite the early Friday morning period, a few strong and severe storms will remain possible due to the strong dynamics of the system. We may see a respite in storm activity Friday midday with additional storm development Friday afternoon and evening near and east of the Tulsa metro before the forcing from this first upper trough ejects into the upper Missouri Valley.

Are there severe storms expected this weekend in Oklahoma?

On Saturday, another strong upper-level trough is projected to move across the southwestern basin and bring another round of strong to severe storms across part of Oklahoma, including most of the central to eastern part of the state.

The exact timing and specific storm mode threats are yet to be known with robust confidence, but pattern recognition combined with local climatology suggest all modes of severe weather will be possible. This system may impact our region both on Saturday and part of Sunday. 

The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Spotify:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/5j0ovActG8BZCOTqZQzrfU

The Alan Crone morning weather podcast link from Apple:

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/weather-out-the-door/id1499556141?i=1000646589555

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