Unseasonably warm weather is expected today, with some locations near and west of the Tulsa metro nearing record highs. Tulsa will see a high near 94° after a morning low of 65°, under sunny conditions. South to southwest winds at 10 to 25 mph will persist, and low-level moisture will be more significant east of Highway 69/75, keeping heat index values in the mid-90s. Areas farther west, with drier air, may reach the lower to mid-90s.
These conditions make record highs a possibility for parts of eastern Oklahoma.
Late tonight into early Thursday morning, upper-level flow will help push a surface cold front southward.
This boundary is expected to move through northern Oklahoma early Thursday before stalling across southeastern Oklahoma by the afternoon and evening.
Thursday will feature mostly sunny skies, with a morning low of 68° and a high of 85°. While stronger forcing will stay north and east, a few showers or storms could develop in far southeastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
While storm chances are low, any that do form could be strong to severe, with damaging winds and hail possible.
The front may lift slightly northward or become diffuse before another boundary arrives Friday. Friday’s weather will remain partly cloudy, with a low of 61° and a high of 89°. Storm chances remain low, but some isolated activity is possible in extreme northeastern Oklahoma and southeastern Kansas late Friday into early Saturday.
A few showers and storms will also remain possible across far southeastern Oklahoma.
South winds will continue into the weekend, bringing increased low-level moisture. Saturday’s forecast includes partly cloudy skies, with a morning low of 62° and a high of 88°. A strong upper-level trough developing in the west will shift a boundary northward, and a few storms could develop Saturday night into Sunday.
Some of these could turn strong or severe depending on how the system evolves.
Sunday will begin around 65° and warm to a high of 85°, with partly cloudy skies continuing.
A developing dryline in western Oklahoma and instability from the approaching storm system may allow for scattered thunderstorms to develop, especially Sunday evening into early Monday.
Severe weather threats could emerge as the system strengthens.
A powerful upper-level system is expected to arrive early next week, bringing multiple waves of instability. This will increase storm chances across Oklahoma, North Texas, and the central Plains. There may be capping from warm air aloft, but the strong storm dynamics are expected to break it down and support storm development.
A cold front is likely to move through the area late Tuesday into Wednesday, temporarily clearing out rain and storm chances.
Cooler and drier conditions may briefly follow, but another active pattern could develop behind it.
As we approach peak severe weather season, staying alert is key. Strong to severe storms are common this time of year across the central and southern Plains.
We’re looking at a weather pattern that could bring a higher chance of severe storms later this weekend into early next week.
While it’s still too early to pin down the exact timing and locations, the setup looks favorable for thunderstorm activity.
We’ll be keeping a close eye on it, and things should come into better focus as we get closer to the weekend
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